Markets Hold Steady Amid Global Jitters: Sensex Flat, Nifty Above 25,850

After an early surge, Indian equity markets settled nearly flat as investors weighed mixed global cues and awaited key earnings. Experts advise selective stock-picking as volatility looms.

Mumbai | October 24, 2025 | Special Report by Sarhind Times Bureau

India’s benchmark indices ended Thursday’s session almost unchanged after an initial rise, with the Sensex hovering near record highs and the Nifty comfortably above 25,850. IT and financial stocks cushioned the market as traders digested global signals on oil, inflation, and interest rates.

Market Wrap: Early Pop, Flat Finish

Mumbai, October 24 — The Indian stock market exhibited measured resilience on Thursday as traders balanced optimism over strong domestic earnings with caution stemming from renewed volatility in global bond yields and crude prices. The day began positively, with the Sensex rising over 300 points in early trade, driven by gains in heavyweight IT counters and select private banks. However, profit-taking in auto and FMCG names pared most of those advances, leading the indices to close nearly flat.

By the final bell, the Sensex gained a modest 47 points to end at 86,432, while the Nifty 50 closed marginally higher at 25,862. Market breadth on the National Stock Exchange tilted slightly negative, with 1,036 stocks advancing against 1,112 declines. Volumes moderated versus the previous session, suggesting traders chose to wait for clearer direction from upcoming earnings and macro data.

Sector Snapshot: IT And Banks Cushion The Index

Technology stocks continued to find favor after a series of upbeat quarterly results from leading firms. Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys added around 1.3 percent each, while Wipro extended its rally on hopes of a gradual turnaround in global demand for digital services. Order commentary from managements has pointed to steady deal pipelines in cloud modernization and AI-led productivity projects.

The Bank Nifty traded in a tight range, supported by strong showings from HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. Analysts believe private lenders could see margin stability in the coming quarters, aided by moderating deposit rates and consistent credit growth. Meanwhile, PSU banks remained under mild pressure as investors booked profits following recent outperformance.

Conversely, auto stocks experienced mild consolidation after several sessions of gains, with Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors each shedding nearly 1 percent. Consumer staples also faced headwinds as higher packaging and fuel-linked freight costs tempered enthusiasm in the FMCG space.

• Leaders: Large-cap IT, private banks, capital goods.
• Laggards: Autos, FMCG, select pharmaceuticals after earnings downgrades.
• Themes: AI enablement in IT, credit growth normalization in banks, margin watch in consumer staples.

Flows Check: FIIs Cautious, DIIs Absorb

Foreign institutional investors were net sellers to the tune of Rs 621 crore, continuing a cautious stance amid global risk aversion. Domestic institutional investors absorbed the pressure with net inflows exceeding Rs 950 crore, extending the recent trend where domestic pools of savings have provided a floor to equities.

“Indian equities are benefiting from a strong domestic participation base. Mutual fund SIPs and retail flows are cushioning FII-led volatility. The structural story remains intact, though sector rotation through earnings is likely.” — Amitabh Singh, Head of Research, Axis Securities

Global Context: Rates, Oil, And Risk Appetite

Global cues were mixed as US Treasury yields hovered near 4.85 percent, rekindling concerns over elevated borrowing costs. Asian markets showed little direction, with Japan’s Nikkei up 0.6 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 0.4 percent. European equities opened lower, mirroring Wall Street’s unease over the rates path and tepid earnings surprises.

Crude oil prices retreated modestly, with Brent near $84 per barrel as traders weighed stockpile data and geopolitical developments in the Middle East. For energy-importing nations like India, sustained oil above $90 would risk stoking inflation and widening the current account deficit.

“While India’s fundamentals are strong, external shocks from energy, rates, or currency can spark intermittent corrections. The key is disciplined portfolio allocation and adequate hedges.” — Ritika Mehra, Macro Strategist, Kotak Institutional Equities

Mid-Caps And Small-Caps: Signs Of Rotation

The broader markets underperformed the large-cap benchmarks. The BSE Mid-Cap Index slipped 0.3 percent, while the Small-Cap Index fell 0.5 percent, reflecting investor caution after months of aggressive buying. Market veterans warned against chasing overheated micro-cap themes where valuations have expanded faster than earnings visibility.

“Rotation from small-caps into large-caps may continue through November. Retail investors should be wary of high-beta names rallying mainly on momentum rather than fundamentals.” — Anand Bhosle, Director of Equity Strategy, JM Financial

Even so, the cooling in frothy pockets is widely seen as healthy and overdue, allowing patient investors to re-enter quality names at better prices. Domestic allocation models indicate rising preference for cash-rich industrials, diversified financials, and export-oriented IT services.

Corporate Scorecard: Earnings And Guidance

Earnings season remained in full swing, with several large-caps posting steady numbers. Infosys reported a 12 percent year-on-year rise in net profit alongside a Rs 9,300 crore buyback, signaling confidence in medium-term cash generation. HDFC Bank highlighted 18 percent loan growth with stable net interest margins, underscoring resilience despite regulatory scrutiny on unsecured lending.

On the consumption side, Marico and Britannia flagged uneven rural demand and erratic input costs. Reliance Industries indicated margin pressures in the petrochem vertical, while retail and digital segments continued to scale. Analysts expect sequential improvement for consumer-facing businesses from December as festive inventory normalizes.

• Prefer earnings visibility over theme-chasing; emphasize cash flows and return on capital employed.
• In IT, watch deal intake, pricing, and AI monetization rather than headline revenue alone.
• In banks, track deposit repricing cadence and credit cost guidance into Q4.

Technical View: Levels And Signals

From a chart perspective, the Nifty 50 oscillates between 25,700 and 26,000. Strong support is placed at 25,750 and resistance near 26,050. A decisive close above 26,050 could open a path toward 26,400, while a slip below 25,700 may trigger short-term profit-booking toward 25,520.

Momentum gauges such as RSI and MACD remain neutral, consistent with consolidation rather than reversal. Intraday traders are advised to maintain tight stop-losses and favor buy-on-dips in leaders showing relative strength versus the index.

“We expect range-bound action with a mild positive bias. Stock-specific breakouts in banking, capital goods, and selective IT should continue to offer opportunities.” — Vikram Thakur, Technical Head, Sharekhan

Macro Dashboard: Policy And Indicators

The Reserve Bank of India’s latest minutes reiterated the primacy of price stability while safeguarding growth. Headline inflation, though moderating, remains above the 4 percent midpoint of the target band, keeping the stance at “withdrawal of accommodation.” Manufacturing PMI held firm at 57.5, signaling broad-based expansion, while GST collections for October are expected to exceed Rs 1.75 lakh crore, pointing to resilient consumption and formalization.

The rupee traded stable around 83.10 per US dollar, with the central bank reportedly smoothing intraday volatility. Bond yields were steady, aided by expectations that core inflation will drift lower as supply bottlenecks ease and commodity prices stabilize.

Retail Pulse: SIP Culture Deepens

Systematic Investment Plan inflows crossed a record Rs 22,000 crore in September, reflecting strengthening retail participation despite global headwinds. The SIP culture is increasingly entrenched among younger investors who favor goal-based, automated allocations over timing the market.

“With digital platforms lowering barriers, millennials are investing early and consistently. This durable domestic liquidity is India’s structural advantage.” — Nirmala Pawar, CEO, GrowWise Capital

Commodities And Currency: A Quick Check

Gold hovered near Rs 73,000 per 10 grams on safe-haven interest, while silver traded around Rs 91,200 per kg. Brent crude steadied near $84 per barrel after a volatile week. The dollar index hovered around 106 as traders recalibrated the odds of additional policy tightening by major central banks. Bitcoin rose about 2 percent to $66,000, tracking broader risk sentiment in digital assets.

• Stable oil and currency support India’s inflation trajectory and import bill.
• A firmer dollar index can cap foreign flows into EM equities near term.
• Gold’s resilience signals persistent hedging demand amid macro uncertainty.

Investor Psychology: Patience Over Impulse

Veteran market participants emphasized the value of patience when headline indices move sideways. Long-only managers prefer methodical accumulation of quality franchises during consolidation phases rather than chasing momentum in crowded trades. For retail portfolios, staggered entries and periodic rebalancing remain the favored approach.

“When the index is flat, opportunities exist beneath the surface. Mid-cap IT, select PSU banks, and capital goods look promising, but entry discipline matters.” — Dev Rao, CIO, Prudent Capital

Public Reaction: The Online Buzz

On social media, the mood was split between caution and optimism. On X, #SensexToday and #DalalStreet trended as traders posted memes about “flat markets being the calm before the next breakout.” Popular educator Rachna Ranade advised followers to avoid impulse buys and to focus on balance sheets over green candles. Finfluencers spotlighted ideas in defense, renewables, and logistics where order visibility remains high.

Outlook: Navigating The Noise

Most strategists foresee consolidation with a positive undertone over the next few weeks. Earnings momentum, healthy domestic liquidity, and macro stability support the medium-term bull case even as near-term volatility persists. The consensus Nifty target for March 2026 clusters around 27,500, implying 6 to 7 percent upside from current levels.

That path depends on global variables: the US Fed’s trajectory, the oil price trend, and geopolitical stability. Portfolio strategies center on buying into weakness in sector leaders, trimming froth in overstretched pockets, maintaining adequate diversification, and keeping dry powder for dislocations.

Session Timeline

Summary Table

Risks And What To Watch

• Global rates: A renewed spike in US yields can compress equity multiples.
• Oil trajectory: Sustained Brent above $90 may revive inflation anxieties.
• Currency: A stronger dollar could pressure EM flows and the rupee.
• Earnings quality: Watch cash conversion and guidance discipline in Q3 and Q4.

Conclusion: Steady Hands, Steady Markets

Thursday’s muted close underscores a classic truth: phases of calm often precede decisive moves. India’s equity story remains anchored by domestic growth, rising formalization, and a deepening pool of household savings. For everyday investors, the takeaway is simple — stay invested, stay diversified, and stay patient. The indices may be flat, but the long-run trajectory continues to point upward.