Haryana Assembly Elections: A High-Stakes Battle Between Congress and BJP

As Haryana gears up for the 2024 Assembly elections, all eyes are on the state where a resurgent Congress is seeking to reclaim power after a decade in opposition. The state, once a Congress stronghold, has become a key battleground, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) determined to hold onto its position despite facing strong anti-incumbency sentiments.

Political Landscape and Key Players

The BJP, sensing the growing discontent among the electorate over issues such as jobs, rising prices, and law and order, has taken proactive measures by replacing Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini. This strategic move is part of the party’s broader plan to counter the anti-incumbency wave. However, despite these efforts, the BJP struggled in the recent Lok Sabha elections, where Congress made significant gains by winning five out of ten seats in Haryana—a sharp contrast to the party’s zero seats in 2019 and just one in 2014.

Congress’ Confidence and Strategy

The Congress, led by former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, is riding high on its recent successes and has been aggressively campaigning across the state. Deepender Hooda’s statewide yatra and Kumari Selja’s focus on urban constituencies have further energized the party’s base. Despite internal divisions, Congress insiders remain confident that these differences will not hinder their ability to rally voters.

The Congress is banking on voter dissatisfaction with the BJP’s handling of key issues, including unemployment, inflation, and governance. The party’s decision to go solo without alliances, even with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), reflects its confidence. Additionally, Congress is making populist promises, such as subsidized LPG, to appeal to the electorate. The Agniveer recruitment scheme is another point of contention that Congress is leveraging to gain voter support.

BJP’s Strategic Moves and Challenges

The BJP’s strategy centers on the “35 qaum ka chunav” formula, which aims to polarize votes against the dominant Jat community while consolidating support from other communities such as Yadavs and Punjabis. The replacement of Khattar with Nayab Saini, an OBC leader, is a calculated move to maintain this electoral balance.

However, the BJP faces a tough challenge from Congress, which argues that the state is united against the ruling party’s failures. Bhupinder Hooda has dismissed the BJP’s strategy as ineffective, claiming that the real battle is between Congress and BJP, with no room for a third player.

Looking Ahead: The Road to the Assembly Elections

The upcoming elections will likely see a multi-cornered contest, with the BJP hoping that the presence of Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and AAP will split the anti-incumbency votes. However, the Lok Sabha results suggest a direct fight between BJP and Congress, with the latter emerging as a formidable contender.

In response to these challenges, the BJP has intensified its organizational efforts, strengthening its presence down to the booth level. Home Minister Amit Shah has visited Haryana twice since the Lok Sabha elections, launching the party’s campaign and signaling the BJP’s determination to retain control of the state.