Fresh Low in Bay of Bengal Delays Monsoon Withdrawal, Rains to Continue into Next Week

New Delhi, October 1 –
Just as large parts of northwestern India were preparing for the formal retreat of the southwest monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has flagged a new low-pressure system brewing over the Bay of Bengal, set to sustain rainfall over eastern and central India till October 9. The development means the monsoon’s curtain call will be further delayed, with showers lingering well into the first fortnight of October.

The IMD’s advisory signals above-normal rainfall across Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and east Uttar Pradesh in the coming days. A simultaneous western disturbance around October 5 is also expected to bring showers to the northwestern plains and Himalayan foothills, extending the “monsoon-like” conditions across India.

Season That Won’t End: Withdrawal Pushed Back

Monsoon withdrawal lines had only just started creeping across Rajasthan and parts of Punjab, raising hopes of a formal retreat by end-September. But the fresh Bay system has effectively reset the clock, ensuring rainfall activity continues into the second week of October.

This has precedent: in recent years, delayed withdrawals have become increasingly common. Climate scientists note that climate variability and warming seas are making monsoon withdrawal less predictable, complicating planning for farmers, city managers, and businesses alike.

Impact on Agriculture

For farmers, extended rainfall is a mixed blessing.

Positive: Soil moisture is replenished, aiding Rabi sowing and boosting water balance.
Negative: Standing Kharif crops such as paddy, cotton, and pulses face harvesting delays, fungal disease risks, and lodging (flattening due to heavy rain).

Advisories issued by state agricultural departments in Bihar, Odisha, and Madhya Pradesh urge farmers to drain excess water from fields and prepare for timely harvesting to minimize post-harvest losses.

Urban Fallout: Waterlogging and Traffic Chaos

Cities in eastern and central India are already issuing traffic advisories. Urban flooding, slippery roads, and drainage choke points are being reported from Bhubaneswar, Patna, and parts of Hyderabad. Civic agencies have been asked to clear storm drains and secure loose hoardings ahead of the heavier spells.

For festival organizers, prolonged rains pose logistical nightmares—Durga Puja pandals, Navratri events, and Dussehra fairs in the east and north may face delays and safety concerns.

Power and Railways on Alert

Both power utilities and railway networks are bracing for disruptions. Strong winds and heavy showers often lead to power line damage, signaling failures, and track washouts. Indian Railways has instructed divisions in the east-central zone to deploy emergency maintenance teams.

Maharashtra and Central India: Relief and Risk

In Maharashtra and parts of Madhya Pradesh, the extended rains are a double-edged sword. While the surplus will bolster reservoir levels and enhance hydropower output, it also risks delaying the start of Rabi crop cycles. Moreover, festival logistics, from transport to outdoor events, face setbacks.

Western Disturbance Adds Complexity

Adding to the Bay system is a western disturbance forecast for October 5, which will bring rainfall to Punjab, Haryana, Delhi NCR, and Himachal Pradesh. This overlap of systems could intensify precipitation in the north, prolonging the monsoon character of the weather.

IMD’s Outlook and La Niña Factor

The IMD has stressed that rainfall during the first half of October will likely remain above-normal, particularly in central and eastern belts. The anticipated La Niña onset this month could further energize the system, reinforcing wet conditions.

Climatologists warn that such patterns point to a climate shift: monsoon withdrawal is no longer a straightforward process but a complex interplay of sea surface anomalies, intra-seasonal oscillations, and western disturbances.

Historical Context

In 2019 and 2021, monsoon withdrawal was delayed till mid-October, leading to heavy October rainfall.
Delayed withdrawal often boosts post-monsoon rainfall totals, sometimes creating flooding in areas already saturated from June–September.

This year, the pattern appears to be repeating, reinforcing concerns that India’s monsoon cycle is being reshaped by climate change.

Expert Voices

IMD Official: “The Bay low will sustain moisture influx into east and central India. Withdrawal will be delayed, possibly till after October 10.”
Agronomist in Bihar: “Harvesting delays are already causing tension. Paddy is ready, but fields remain too soggy for machines.”
Urban Planner in Odisha: “Every extended rain episode highlights our poor drainage. Cities need redesigning, not just quick fixes.”

Economic and Social Impact

Insurance: Crop insurers may face claims from flood-affected farms.
Transport: Logistics firms anticipate delays in road freight.
Tourism: Extended rains dampen festival tourism in the east and north.
Retail & FMCG: Disruptions in distribution during festive demand could strain supply chains.

Conclusion: A Rain That Refuses to Quit

As the rest of India readies for autumn festivals, the skies refuse to relent. The Bay of Bengal low-pressure system has once again demonstrated the monsoon’s unpredictability—a season that increasingly stretches beyond its calendar window.

For farmers, city dwellers, and policymakers, the coming week is about mitigation and adaptation. Whether it is draining waterlogged fields, navigating flooded roads, or securing power lines, India is bracing for an extended wet spell.

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