First African-hosted G20 Summit Opens Amid Major Western Absences and Global South Tensions

A landmark moment — and a cautious start

The 2025 G20 Johannesburg Summit signals a symbolic shift in the global landscape. For the first time, the Group of Twenty major economies is meeting on African soil. South Africa has set the theme of “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability” and aims to centre the Global South’s voice in global governance. 

But while the symbolism is strong, the practical start is cautious. The United States has publicly declined to send a head of state, signalling instead limited engagement. This absence casts a shadow over an institution already facing questions of relevance and effectiveness. 

Why this Summit matters now

The G20 platform was originally conceived to steer global policy through major economies. Yet the past decade has shifted the epicenter of some growth toward the Global South. Against this backdrop, Johannesburg’s summit is being framed as a chance to reset the conversation: from North-led agendas to more equal participation, from purely growth metrics to justice and sustainability.

For developing countries, key asks include debt relief reforms, stronger voice in global institutions like the IMF and World Bank, and renewed commitment to climate-finance flows promised but unreliably delivered. South Africa’s presidency has placed these at the centre. 

Main agenda items on the table

At the summit, delegates will discuss multiple high-stakes topics:

• Economic recovery and inclusive growth: With global growth sluggish, many developing economies are pushing for policies that support industrialisation and job creation. South Africa has emphasised “industrialisation with purpose” and reducing inequality.
• Trade, supply-chains and resilience: The last few years of shocks — pandemic, war, supply-chain disruption — have raised interest in diversified and resilient trade networks. The G20 will examine how emerging markets can integrate more deeply and equitably.
• Climate and sustainability: With the concurrent COP30 climate talks underway in Brazil, the G20 summit has a significant environmental overlay: ensuring climate-finance commitments, sustainable development pathways, and a just transition for vulnerable economies. 
• Global governance reform: Many smaller and middle-income nations argue that existing multilateral institutions no longer reflect the economic realities of 2025. Reform—whether IMF quotas, debt architecture or voting rights—will be discussed if euphemistically.

The absence of major powers — and what it signals

The United States’ decision to not send a head‐of‐state to Johannesburg reverberates through the summit’s tone. Historically one of the dominant G20 voices, its reduced visibility signals a shift. 

Observers interpret the absence as multifaceted: domestic political distractions in the US, a reevaluation of the value of multilateral engagement, and possibly strategic repositioning in a world where bilateral and regional mechanisms are gaining traction. For South Africa and host-partners, this weakens the institutional gravitas of the summit.

Diplomatic undercurrents and emerging alignments

A number of diplomatic undercurrents are at play: first, the growing emphasis on Global South sovereignty — that is, emerging economies refusing to be mere recipients of policy led by the developed world. Second, the summit may solidify new alignments: Africa-Asia-Latin America cooperation, greater South-South trade and investment frameworks, and acceptance that old governance models must adapt.

Some diplomats suggest the show of “absence” by major Western powers helps sharpen this message. In effect, the G20 may be telling a story of plural leadership rather than one dominated by the old order. At the same time, the risk is that if the institutional muscle is missing, outcomes will be more symbolic than substantive.

What this means for India and other emerging powers

For India, the summit offers a platform to assert its dual identity: as a rising economy and a Global South partner. The country is likely to push for greater trade linkages with African markets, deeper infrastructure investment under programs such as trilateral partnerships, and stronger voice in climate-finance architecture. The alignment of India with Africa could reinforce its geopolitical outreach.

Also, India has an interest in ensuring that global economic frameworks reflect its brand of growth: domestic-demand led, innovation-oriented, but inclusive. The Johannesburg summit may well serve as a stepping stone for India’s leadership trajectory in multilateral forums.

Risks to successful outcomes

While ambition is high, the summit confronts real obstacles:

• Empty commitments risk credibility damage: If large donors or advanced economies do not follow through on promised climate-finance or reform timelines, the cynicism will deepen.
• Divergent national interests: Countries’ priorities vary — the advanced economies focus on green transition and digital economy, while many developing states prioritize industrial growth and job creation. Aligning these is fraught.
• Implementation and follow-through: As has happened in previous summits, without strong mechanisms for monitoring and accountability, many decisions fade. The absence of some key actors may make such follow-through even harder.
• Geopolitical spill-overs: Conflict regions, trade rivalries and fragmentation of global governance could undermine consensus. The summit must navigate between fostering cooperation and managing competition.

From statements to execution: What to watch

To judge the success of the summit, analysts will monitor:

• Formal communiqués — how strong the language and whether major commitments (on climate-finance, debt reform, trade liberalisation) appear.
• Bilateral announcements — infrastructure deals, south-south cooperation pacts, multi-country investment frameworks especially involving India, Africa and Latin America.
• Mechanism establishment — whether a joint monitoring framework is set up to track progress. Mere headline pledges are insufficient.
• Press follow-up — whether weaker economies feel heard and whether their demands translate into concrete support rather than aspirational language.

Broader implications for the global economy and geopolitics

If the summit succeeds, it could mark a step toward a more multipolar world: where leadership and agenda-setting are less US-centric and more distributed; where the Global South has a louder voice; and where development, equity and sustainability share equal billing. This could reshape trade networks, investment flows and diplomatic alignment.

Conversely, if the summit ends in faint gestures and few deliverables, it may reinforce scepticism about large multilateral groupings and accelerate the shift toward ad-hoc coalitions, regional alliances and bilateral trade diplomacy—thus altering the very architecture the G20 was meant to uphold.

Conclusion

The 2025 G20 Johannesburg Summit is one of the more consequential multilateral gatherings in recent years. Hosted in Africa, visibly oriented toward development justice and sustainability, and convened at a time of global economic malaise and geopolitical fragmentation, it has the potential to reset—but also the risk of symbolic impotence.

For India and other emerging economies, the summit offers a strategic stage rather than just a venue. But reaching beyond rhetoric toward action will determine whether this moment becomes pivot or footnote. In the midst of absence and uncertainty, the test now is whether consensus turns into delivery. The world will be watching.