Delhi Air Outlook: ‘Poor’ Through Oct 18, Likely to Turn ‘Very Poor’ by Oct 20–21, Says EWS Forecast

Early warning signals trigger concern as calm winds, cooling nights, and crop burning threaten to push NCR air deeper into toxic zone.
(By Sarhind Times Environment Bureau | New Delhi | October 17, 2025)

New Delhi — Capital Braces for the Smog Curve

Delhi’s familiar winter haze is tightening its grip. According to the Early Warning System (EWS) for Air Quality, the national capital is expected to remain in the ‘poor’ category through October 18, before slipping into the ‘very poor’ bracket around October 20–21, as wind speeds drop and crop residue fires intensify in northern states.

Officials from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and SAFAR (System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research) confirmed that meteorological conditions are “unfavorable” for dispersion in the coming week, setting up the season’s first major air-quality deterioration event.

“We expect calm winds, lower mixing heights, and local emissions combining with external fire smoke,” said Dr. V.K. Soni, head of the Environment Monitoring Research Centre at IMD. “AQI will likely reach ‘very poor’ by October 21.”

The Forecast in Numbers

As of Friday morning, Delhi’s 24-hour average AQI stood at 254, firmly in the ‘poor’ range.
The EWS projection, generated jointly by IMD and IITM Pune, outlines a steady decline:

Date	Forecast AQI Range	Category	Primary Factors
Oct 17	240–260	Poor	Dust, vehicular emissions
Oct 18–19	260–290	Poor	Calm winds, early stubble fires
Oct 20–21	310–340	Very Poor	Crop residue burning, temperature inversion
Oct 22–23	320–360	Very Poor	Regional accumulation, low wind dispersal

Satellite data from NASA’s VIIRS platform detected over 450 active fire points in Punjab and Haryana over the past 72 hours — a sharp uptick that will likely worsen transport of particulate matter (PM2.5) to NCR.

“This is the annual inflection point when local and transboundary sources start merging,” explained Dr. Gufran Beig, founder-director of SAFAR.

The Science Behind the Smog

Delhi’s pollution spike every October follows a predictable pattern:

Post-Monsoon Residual Dust: Monsoon retreat leaves behind dry silt on roads and open land, easily lifted by traffic movement.
Temperature Inversion: Cooling nights trap pollutants close to the surface, limiting vertical mixing.
Calm Wind Speeds: Reduce dispersion, allowing accumulation of PM2.5 and PM10.
Crop Residue Burning: Fires from Punjab, Haryana, and western UP contribute up to 40% of PM2.5 load during peak periods.
Urban Emissions: Vehicles, construction dust, and solid waste burning compound the problem.

“Delhi’s geography — landlocked, dense, and dry — makes it a perfect bowl for pollution to settle,” noted Dr. Sagnik Dey, IIT Delhi air quality expert.

GRAP Already in Force: Stage-1 Measures Underway

In anticipation of worsening conditions, the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) invoked Stage-1 of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) earlier this week.

The 27-point plan includes:

Water sprinkling and mechanical road sweeping.
PUC checks and crackdowns on polluting vehicles.
Dust control at construction sites.
Anti-open-burning patrols in residential and industrial zones.
Waste removal drives to prevent ignition hazards.

If AQI breaches 300 (Very Poor), the system will automatically escalate to Stage-2, introducing curbs on diesel generators, restricting construction, and tightening industrial controls.

“We are enforcing early to avoid a last-minute scramble,” said CAQM Member-Secretary, Arvind Bhatnagar.

Local Hotspots: From Anand Vihar to Gurugram

Air quality levels vary sharply across NCR districts:

Monitoring Station	AQI (Oct 17)	Category
Anand Vihar (Delhi)	285	Poor
Rohini (Delhi)	276	Poor
Gurugram Sector 51	268	Poor
Noida Sector 62	292	Poor
Faridabad (Sector 16A)	301	Very Poor
Ghaziabad (Sanjay Nagar)	310	Very Poor

Satellite wind trajectories suggest that northwesterly flows from Punjab’s agricultural belt will reach the NCR boundary layer by October 20, carrying smoke and fine aerosols.

“The smog layer tends to drift southeastward, blanketing Gurugram, Faridabad, and Noida first before enveloping central Delhi,” explained an IMD scientist.

The Human Toll: Rising Health Risks

Doctors across NCR warn that even “poor” AQI levels can trigger respiratory inflammation, eye irritation, and wheezing in sensitive groups.

“We’re already seeing a spike in ER visits for asthma and bronchitis,” said Dr. Arjun Sethi, pulmonologist at Fortis, Gurugram. “With AQI crossing 300, children and seniors will face the brunt.”

Hospitals have activated pollution clinics, and Delhi’s Health Department has issued advisories recommending:

Limiting outdoor activity during peak hours (6–10 am, 5–8 pm).
Using N95 or equivalent masks outdoors.
Keeping air purifiers in bedrooms and classrooms.
Avoiding outdoor exercise in the morning.

Citizen Action and Awareness

Civil groups are amplifying calls for behavioral interventions alongside enforcement.

“No policy can replace personal responsibility,” said Ritika Sinha, founder of Clean Air Warriors NCR. “Avoid burning waste, check your car’s emissions, and use public transport.”

RWAs (Resident Welfare Associations) have begun internal air audits and are distributing eco-friendly Diwali materials, hoping to offset pollution spikes during festival season.

The Role of Weather: IMD Explains What’s Next

According to IMD forecasts, Delhi will witness:

Minimum temperature dropping to 18°C by October 20.
Calm morning winds (below 5 kmph).
Clear skies, reducing vertical air mixing.

These conditions trap pollutants, creating surface-level haze visible during early mornings and late evenings.

“Once the temperature inversion sets in, the city essentially becomes a closed lid,” explained IMD senior scientist Dr. Naresh Kumar.

Crop Burning Data: Early Fires on the Rise

The Punjab Remote Sensing Centre recorded 1,872 stubble-burning incidents between October 10 and 16 — a 60% increase from last year’s same period.

State	Fire Incidents (Oct 10–16)	% of Total
Punjab	1,247	67%
Haryana	462	25%
Uttar Pradesh (Western)	163	8%

The majority were reported from Amritsar, Tarn Taran, Patiala, and Fatehgarh Sahib, where paddy harvesting began early due to favorable monsoon withdrawal.

Officials have intensified drone surveillance and satellite monitoring, but enforcement remains uneven.

“We’re distributing bio-decomposers and offering incentives,” said Punjab Agriculture Secretary K.S. Pannu, “but behavioral adoption takes time.”

The Economics of Pollution Control

Analysts estimate Delhi spends over ₹400 crore annually on emergency pollution measures, yet the seasonal cycle persists.
Environmental economists argue that prevention — via long-term crop management, public transport, and cleaner fuels — would cost far less than crisis management.

“Each smog season erases productivity,” said Prof. Amitabh Kundu, NITI Aayog advisor. “School closures, reduced mobility, and health expenses are hidden GDP losses.”

A 2024 World Bank study pegged Delhi’s air pollution cost at 1.8% of India’s GDP, equivalent to ₹4 lakh crore annually in lost labor and healthcare expenditure.

Tech Watch: New Tools for Air Monitoring

This year, the EWS forecast model integrates AI-driven data fusion using:

Satellite inputs (VIIRS, MODIS).
Ground AQI sensors.
Wind trajectory simulations.
Machine learning for pollution-source attribution.

The result is a four-day predictive model for Delhi-NCR, now shared with CAQM, CPCB, and state agencies for timely response.

“We’re combining atmospheric physics with big data,” said Dr. Gufran Beig. “Forecasts are now 80–85% accurate.”

Public Sentiment: “We Know It’s Coming”

On Delhi’s streets, fatigue and resignation mix with faint hope.

“We clean the roads, we wear masks, but nothing really changes,” said Manoj Sharma, an auto driver near ITO.
“It’s like fighting smoke with a broom,” added college student Ananya, coughing as she cycled through Lajpat Nagar.

Some residents, however, see early GRAP activation as a sign of progress.

“At least the government is acknowledging the problem before it explodes,” said Sonal Gupta, Noida RWA member.

Policy Outlook: Stage-2 Looms

If conditions deteriorate as predicted, CAQM may activate Stage-2 by October 20 evening, bringing additional curbs such as:

Ban on diesel generator sets.
Tightened construction schedules.
Restrictions on industrial emissions.
Mandatory vehicle inspections for government fleets.

“We are ready to escalate,” said CAQM Chairperson M.M. Kutty. “But the focus remains preventive, not punitive.”

A Regional Issue: Not Just Delhi

Meteorologists emphasize that NCR’s smog is regional, not municipal.
Satellite imagery shows plumes extending across Amritsar, Ludhiana, Karnal, Panipat, and Meerut, forming a contiguous haze belt.

“The atmosphere doesn’t recognize state borders,” said Dr. Randeep Guleria. “Coordination between Haryana, Punjab, and Delhi is crucial.”

Public Health Campaigns and School Response

Delhi’s Directorate of Education has circulated advisories urging schools to:

Conduct indoor assemblies during poor AQI days.
Limit sports activities to mid-day hours.
Educate students on air-quality monitoring apps.

“Children are our first responders — they carry awareness home,” said school principal Neeta Kapoor from South Delhi.

Hospitals across NCR are also setting up real-time AQI boards, allowing patients to schedule outdoor appointments accordingly.

The International View

Environmental watchdogs abroad, including Greenpeace and IQAir, continue to rank Delhi among the world’s most polluted capitals, despite incremental improvements since 2019.

In a 2024 study, IQAir ranked Delhi’s annual PM2.5 average at 92 μg/m³, nearly 18 times above WHO safe limits.

“The effort is visible, but the scale of the challenge is enormous,” said Dr. Susanne Mueller, air-quality consultant at UNEP.

Conclusion: Preparing for the Season Ahead

With October’s calm air turning into a seasonal trap, Delhi’s 2025 pollution curve appears to be following familiar contours.

But this time, authorities insist early activation of GRAP, improved forecast modeling, and greater public participation could delay or soften the peak.

Still, the next ten days will be decisive — determining whether the capital enters November with manageable haze or hazardous smog.

“We are at the beginning of the battle,” said Dr. Narayanan, CAQM scientist. “Our actions now will decide the air we breathe later.”

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