Monsoon 2025 Ends With 7.9% Surplus, October Rains Likely to Stay Above Normal: IMD

New Delhi, October 1 –
India’s four-month-long southwest monsoon officially concluded on September 30 with a remarkable 7.9% surplus, the fifth-highest since 2001, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This means the country received 108% of its long-period average (LPA) rainfall between June and September—an outcome that carries wide-ranging implications for agriculture, urban planning, reservoir management, and the overall economy.

Even as the country closes the season with above-normal rainfall, IMD projections for October suggest wet weather will linger in many regions, particularly central and eastern India. The agency has also indicated the likely onset of La Niña conditions, a climatic phenomenon that generally enhances monsoon rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.

How the Season Unfolded: A Timeline of Surplus Rains

The 2025 monsoon began with cautious optimism as pre-monsoon showers arrived on schedule. By mid-July, it was clear that the season was trending wetter than average.

June–July: Rains surged across central and eastern India, replenishing reservoirs early.
August: Several states recorded heavy downpours, though localized floods struck Gujarat, Odisha, and parts of the northeast.
September: Rains remained vigorous in the north, delaying the traditional withdrawal phase.

By the end of September, cumulative rainfall across the country was 7.9% above the LPA, with northwest India posting its wettest monsoon since 2001.

Regional Breakdown

Northwest India: Punjab (+41%), Haryana (+33%), Rajasthan (+64%) – significant surpluses, aiding agriculture but causing flash floods in low-lying zones.
Central India: Above-normal rains boosted Kharif crops and hydroelectric potential.
South Peninsula: Mixed picture; Kerala and Karnataka saw excess, while Tamil Nadu trended slightly drier.
Northeast: Uneven distribution, with Meghalaya and Assam recording extreme episodes interspersed with dry spells.

October Outlook: Monsoon Withdrawal Delayed

IMD has warned that monsoon withdrawal will stretch well into mid-October, thanks to a new low-pressure system forming in the Bay of Bengal. This system is likely to sustain rains in Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, and east Uttar Pradesh into the first week of October.

Western disturbances will also bring showers to northwest plains and Himalayan states. City managers are being urged to prepare for extended waterlogging and drainage challenges.

Agricultural Implications: A Double-Edged Sword

For agriculture, this surplus is both a boon and a challenge.

Positive: High soil moisture levels are ideal for Rabi sowing, ensuring better wheat, barley, and mustard crops. Reservoirs at 90%+ capacity will support irrigation well into winter.
Negative: Standing Kharif crops like pulses and cotton face disease risks from excessive moisture. Fungal infections and pest outbreaks are already being reported in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.

Farm advisories are urging timely fungicide applications and drainage management to minimize crop losses.

Urban Challenges: Waterlogging and Infrastructure Stress

Cities across India continue to battle drainage failures. Heavy rains in September left metros like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru struggling with flooded underpasses and snarled traffic. Civic bodies warn that prolonged October rains will test already stressed urban infrastructure.

Experts argue that India needs modern stormwater management systems, citing successful models in Singapore and Tokyo.

Reservoirs and Hydropower: A Silver Lining

Reservoir storage levels across India stand significantly above average, ensuring strong hydropower generation capacity for the next two quarters. This is expected to:

Reduce reliance on coal imports.
Support irrigation in semi-arid states.
Provide a buffer against El Niño swings in future years.

Economic Impact: From Food Prices to Insurance

Food Prices: While good rains stabilize grain supply, vegetable and pulse prices could spike due to rot and disease.
Insurance: Crop insurers brace for claims in flood-hit districts.
Logistics: Extended rains delay freight and road transport, raising operational costs.

Economists suggest that headline inflation may remain volatile, with food prices as the key swing factor.

La Niña on the Horizon

IMD forecasts the onset of La Niña conditions in October, which typically supports more rain in India. Historically, La Niña years have seen strong monsoons, though local effects vary. Planners will keep a close eye on how this affects winter rainfall patterns.

Climate Change Context

The erratic distribution of rainfall—surpluses in some regions, deficits in others—underscores the climate variability India now faces. Experts argue for:

Better monsoon forecasting models.
Investments in climate-resilient agriculture.
Stronger urban planning to withstand extreme events.

Voices from the Field

Farmer in Haryana: “This year gave us water, but too much. My cotton fields are damaged. Next season, I hope for balance.”
Urban commuter in Bengaluru: “Every rain means hours stuck in waterlogged streets. We need smarter drainage, not just flyovers.”
Hydrologist: “The surplus is good news for reservoirs, but climate unpredictability means we cannot relax.”

Conclusion: A Mixed Bag for India

The 2025 monsoon leaves behind a story of surplus rain, delayed withdrawal, and extended October showers. It is both an asset and a warning. While farmers, hydropower stations, and reservoirs benefit, the risks of urban flooding, crop disease, and price volatility remain.

India’s challenge is clear: leverage the gains while mitigating the risks. The monsoon is no longer just a season—it is a litmus test of India’s climate resilience.

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